Web Innovation: Have we seen the best or is it still to come?
More and more posts about the web I come across seem to lament over the state of the web these days. Specifically these posts suggest that we aren’t trying hard enough to innovate. Some also suggest that we really aren’t innovating on the web anymore, that we’re just creating small iterations on what already exists. In fact Mark Cuban said as much in a post the other day:
Personally, I think Web 2.0 already is tired. When social networking or Twittering applications that are nice to have, but not a need to have, are the best we can do. We ain’t doing much. Lets get real. As much fun as Twittering can be, shouldn’t we all be able to agree that if its the latest and greatest application, the Internet has Jumped the Shark ?
When I first read that section of Cuban’s post I was floored. Then I started to think about it and wondered if he may be on to something. I started to agree with him. There are bigger problems to solve with technology. Why are we spending so much time, money, energy and intelligence on things like Twitter? Do services like Twitter really matter?
After thinking on that for a bit I came to realize that we may simply be in an innovation valley right now. If you were to look at innovation over time you would see that bursts of innovation hit followed by a lull and then another burst. Innovation is cyclical in the way that evolution is. Bursts followed by relatively long lulls, etc., etc.
So maybe the web hasn’t “Jumped the Shark.” Maybe we haven’t reached the limits of what the web can do. Perhaps we’re just in a valley, in the midst of a lull which will head into another burst of innovation.
Looking at things another way I also realized that innovations like Twitter could be the way the web, and computers in general, we meant to evolve from the very beginning. After all in the early 1960s, Robert Fano, at the time MIT’s Ford Professor of Engineering, organized Project MAC at MIT to demonstrate the feasibility of “general-purpose, independent, on-line use of computers by a large number of people” (cite: MIT’s Technology Review Magazine - July/Aug 2008 - p.96).
Fano organized the project because he believed that the power of computers didn’t necessarily lie in their computational power, he believed the power of computers could be found in their ability to connect people and allow for collaboration and the sharing of information. Aren’t these same high level goals that services like Twitter carry forward? I’d say so.
While Twitter may not be a technological marvel it is furthering how we communicate and that is really what computers and the web do best.
Are we in a lull? Perhaps. Are we simply taking the next steps toward better electronic communication? Sure. So, perhaps the future of the web isn’t as bleak as people like Cuban suggest. Of course only time will tell.
Side note: What is disturbing is the lack (and continual cutting) of spending on science here in the United States. Without more research funding we will fall behind and could see our society begin to decline (as many other societies in history have when they promote decadence and push furthering science and learning aside). We need to get money to the people who are working on the breakthroughs that really change the world.
Eric: Thanks for your post. Thoughtful. Noticed frequency down with your VC life. Friendly typo-correction: [we] –were– meant to evolve. Regards, Bob
Bob Brill
11 Jul 08 at 6:21 pm
Hi Eric - I wouldn’t call it a lull, I would say we are following in a cycle. I do not believe the Internet has jumped the shark, and there is plenty more to come!
Back in ‘04 I spoke to high school students in the Boston area who won the Hugh O’Brien Youth Award, given to HS sophomores. As I was preparing for what I would say to them, I realized they did not know a time without email or cell phones! Now looking back just 4 years, there was no YouTube then, nor Twitter. And look back 4 years earlier, think of what happened since then.
You are right that people need to identify what is new. The “old days” of working on an idea until your head hurt so bad are over, people are throwing it out there and seeing what sticks, while people are looking for ideas to take forward.
The best days are yet to come!
mp/m
Mike Maddaloni - The Hot Iron
12 Jul 08 at 11:33 am
i agree with you. i think a lot of these things we’re working on these days focus on transparency, which is leading to tons of innovation in products and the way we do business. i think twitter does one thing really well, which is to enable asynchronous communication between a group of like minded people. i don’t think it’s necessary, but i think it taps into the basic desire to keep up on what friends, family, etc are up to and makes it easy to do so without forcing the committment of direct communication. this is why so many people look at the service and blow it off, then start using it and get addicted.
good post.
jeff judge
12 Jul 08 at 5:22 pm
Good post Eric, glad to see people rationally challenging things. I think there is truth to the fact innovation has slowed. When’s the last time you were excited about anything?
I think the “web 2.0″ startup culture is the culprit. Everyone began touting the falling costs of starting a web company, the lightweight user friendly applications and the iteration-focused mentality. But this created a safe culture that no longer rewarded radical innovation.
In other words, if a startup couldn’t get to market traction with $15,000 in incubator money, it likely wasn’t a “worthwhile” app. But frameworks like that stunt creativity.
The innovation cycle will recover over the next few years as the economic/funding/exit cycle dampens, just as it did 5 years ago.The web is the greatest innovation catalyst in history because of it’s transparency, flexibility, growth, community, etc. Until a system that bests those qualities comes along, the web will be king.
John Ramey
13 Jul 08 at 12:16 am
I couldn’t disagree with Mark Cuban more (and not just because he is from Dallas and I am from Houston). Today’s innovations around data syndication and aggregation across multiple mediums give real scalability to the initial killer apps that Cuban appreciates. Whether its cloud computing, virtualization, the mobile web, or utilization of our newly found social networks, innovation has never been more vibrant!
Aziz Gilani
13 Jul 08 at 9:44 am
I think we are just getting started. Falling hardware / software infrastructure costs and productivity-boosting innovations have made it so any *geek* can start a company just because they want to, to solve a problem, without worrying about the business model or raising capital. So we got a lot of stuff that geeks want.
Those same forces will continue and eventually we may reach the point where any *person* can start a company just to solve problem that they feel needs solving.
Then things will get really exciting. Hang out with someone who works in a non-tech-savvy industry or a big company. They are usually full of ideas for problems that are being inefficiently solved now.
Sean
22 Jul 08 at 4:31 pm